End of season points target

Jack · Post by **Jack** » 28 Dec 2015, 20:58

Well done to Kevin and the team for another combative performance today at Cheltenham.
It looks like 48 points might be enough to stay up. At the moment 6 teams including us are averaging a point or less per game so 46 games = 46 points or less if 4 of the 6 don't improve during the remainder of the season!
However nothing in football is certain so we must aim for a minimum 52-54 points.
We have 20 games left, 11 at home and 9 away, and at the moment we have 5 games each month but the weather and any further progress in the FA Trophy could scupper that.
In January we have three nome, Braintree, Welling and Gateshead with two away at FGR and Tranmere. I reckon that we need 7 points from the three home games and wouldn't anticipate anything from the away games.
February is the critical month, again we have three home, Chester, Halifax and Altincham and away games at Macc and Boreham Wood. The target has to be at least 10 points from these games.
In March we again have three home games Kiddy, Southport and Eastleigh with away games at Aldershot and Dover. The Easter games are against Dover and Eastleigh. Again I reckon we need 7 points.
If we get the 7 + 10 + 7 target we would have 44 points from 41 at the end of March and hopefully be out of the bottom 4 so that our destiny is in our own hands.
In April we have two home games v Tranmere and Barrowwith away games at Gateshead, Bromley and Guisley. To get to 52 points we would need a further 8 points but it could be less depending on how our rivals fare.
I think it is "doable" subject to team strengthening in January and less injuries and suspensions then we have had up to now. After FGR on Friday we will have completed our games against the top 3 so hopefully we can see off some of the lesser sides in the league or am I being too optomistic?

Gullscorer · Post by **Gullscorer** » 29 Dec 2015, 08:38

So we need about 30 points from twenty games. Though it would perhaps be better to have a monthly points target, achieved a game at a time.

Too optimistic? No. Team performances have been improving in recent games, and will improve even more if the opportunity is taken in the New Year window to strengthen the team where required. Even individual errors should decrease as our young players learn with experience.

Looking at the bottom nine teams, from their last 6 games Aldershot have got 4 points, Barrow 7, Guiseley 4, Boreham Wood 6, Altrincham 6, Welling 2, Halifax 14, Torquay 4, and Kidderminster 3.

So let's not get too carried away. The outlook is good, and those 30 points are indeed achievable. But it will need continued hard work, desire, and tenacity from all concerned. And not least the continued fantastic support of every one of us. Because those other teams will also be fighting for their National League status.

Post by **Dave** » 29 Dec 2015, 09:28

Boreham wood and Altrincham are currently sat 19th and 20th both on 26 points and with better goal difference than us, these are the two team we're focusing on catching currently, that of course could change, and have to better their points tally by 7 points to stay up.

Surely we have to factor in who we've played and what our remaining fixtures are, and who both Boreham wood and Altrincham have played and what their remaining fixtures are.

TUFC by the close of play Friday would have completed their fixtures versus 6 of the current top 10 placed teams, including the current top 3, our team will have 3 remaining fixtures to play versus current top 10 placed sides, we also have Altrincham at home, Boreham wood away.

Boreham wood between now and the end of the season have 7 fixtures left against current top 10 placed sides, including Grimsby and Cheltenham twice left to play. Altrincham also have 7 fixtures remaining against top 10 sides, including Grimsby.

No one need tell me nothing is guaranteed in football, results are often unpredictable, but one thing that is guaranteed here, on paper TUFC has by some way the easier run in on paper, the chance to save ourselves is right there starring us straight in the face. Our team have to stand up and be courted, and take that chance.

Added in 3 minutes 4 seconds:
Just to add, had a look at Guiseley remaining fixtures, they have 9 games left versus top 10 sides, including Grimsby and FGR and Cheltenham.

Jeff · Post by **Jeff** » 29 Dec 2015, 09:40

forevertufc wrote:Boreham wood and Altrincham are currently sat 19th and 20th both on 26 points and with better goal difference than us, these are the two team we're focusing on catching currently, that of course could change, and have to better their points tally by 7 points to stay up.

Surely we have to factor in who we've played and what our remaining fixtures are, and who both Boreham wood and Altrincham have played and what their remaining fixtures are.

TUFC by the close of play Friday would have completed their fixtures versus 6 of the current top 10 placed teams, including the current top 3, our team will have 3 remaining fixtures to play versus current top 10 placed sides, we also have Altrincham at home, Boreham wood away.

Boreham wood between now and the end of the season have 7 fixtures left against current top 10 placed sides, including Grimsby and Cheltenham twice left to play. Altrincham also have 7 fixtures remaining against top 10 sides, including Grimsby.

No one need tell me nothing is guaranteed in football, results are often unpredictable, but one thing that is guaranteed here, on paper TUFC has by some way the easier run in on paper, the chance to save ourselves is right there starring us straight in the face. Our team have to stand up and be courted, and take that chance.

Added in 3 minutes 4 seconds:
Just to add, had a look at Guiseley remaining fixtures, they have 9 games left versus top 10 sides, including Grimsby and FGR and Cheltenham.

Its also worth considering that of the bottom half of the division, we have to play Chester, Southport, Barrow, Altrincham, Welling, Halifax and Kiddy all at Plainmoor. Getting our home form sorted is going to be absolutely critical

Post by **Dave** » 29 Dec 2015, 09:49

Totally agree Jeff. Personally I think the 4.1 home win v FGR will have gone a long, long way to lifting a huge monkey off the squads back, and if the fans continue to provide the support we did v FGR that will help take the pressure off further, my main concern is the gates will return to type in the next game and the atmosphere created v FGR will also disappear, it's up to us fans to help.

davidcaldwell123 · Post by **davidcaldwell123** » 29 Dec 2015, 15:28

If we take previous form as a guide we will get around 15 points, our form needs to improve by 50%, if it has and we are on the ascendency, we are in with a chance? After the next two games we should all have a clearer idea of our status for next season!

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 29 Dec 2015, 16:18

Gullscorer reckons we need 30 points from 20 games which is 50% of the available points.

During the whole of 2015 we have only obtained 31% of the points on offer so we need to show a big improvement particularly at home.

With 11 home games we need to get around 20 points (60%) to really give ourselves a good chance. Football is so hard to predict. Just look at the Premier League this season. Nobody predicted some of the extraordinary results. The average teams are getting better and the big teams are struggling.

Momentum is crucial which is why David is saying how important the next two games are to our hopes.

davidcaldwell123 · Post by **davidcaldwell123** » 02 Jan 2016, 14:18

Momentum halted, Braintree next, still hear positive things on the team and performances, need results or in the Southern League!

portugull wrote:Gullscorer reckons we need 30 points from 20 games which is 50% of the available points.

During the whole of 2015 we have only obtained 31% of the points on offer so we need to show a big improvement particularly at home.

With 11 home games we need to get around 20 points (60%) to really give ourselves a good chance. Football is so hard to predict. Just look at the Premier League this season. Nobody predicted some of the extraordinary results. The average teams are getting better and the big teams are struggling.

Momentum is crucial which is why David is saying how important the next two games are to our hopes.

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 02 Jan 2016, 15:26

Since winning 2-1 at Tranmere on Dec 5th Braintree have only played one League match losing 1-0 away to Boreham Wood on 27 Dec.

5 postponed matches means they could be a little ring rusty on 9th January. Just hope Plainmoor can cope with all this rain!!

CraigUnder · Post by **CraigUnder** » 02 Jan 2016, 16:39

The results so far today are going doing good for us, no team in the bottom half winning, with halifax losing.

Dazza · Post by **Dazza** » 02 Jan 2016, 18:07

It didn't end that way did it. Best we got was an abandonment. ,

Jeff · Post by **Jeff** » 02 Jan 2016, 19:32

Lets not get too dispondent (* rose tint alert *)

We've just come out of the toughest little set of fixtures you can get this season. We got 3 points, and our goal difference isn't any worse than it was when it started. Thats better than all of us expected. And also I think we can be heartened by how we performed.

If you look at how we've performed against our nearby rivals, over Xmas we've made up 2 points on Welling, Altrincham, Guiseley, Aldershot and Barrow (albeit losing ground to Southport, Halifax and Boreham Wood). Admittedly some of those have been due to postponements, but that may leave some of the above with hectic fixture schedules later in the season which may work in our favour.

What is important now is we maintain the performance and effort levels against Cheltenham and FGR against the other teams in the division. As I've said before, the fact we have Kidderminster, Halifax, Welling, Altrincham, Barrow, Chester and Southport all to play at Plainmoor before the seasons end could be critical if we can replicate anything like the boxing day performance.

Whether we will get to anywhere near to 50points, I don't know.

nickbrod · Post by **nickbrod** » 02 Jan 2016, 19:36

To have any chance of surviving we have to hit promotion form, what's the odds on that?

Dazza · Post by **Dazza** » 02 Jan 2016, 20:09

We need at least seven wins maybe eight. Not impossible as teams accept they will neither challenge or be demoted but still a man sized ask. We will have to get at least two in January, three would show real intent.

davidcaldwell123 · Post by **davidcaldwell123** » 02 Jan 2016, 20:49

Going to be interesting one way or another!

Jeff wrote:Lets not get too dispondent (* rose tint alert *)

We've just come out of the toughest little set of fixtures you can get this season. We got 3 points, and our goal difference isn't any worse than it was when it started. Thats better than all of us expected. And also I think we can be heartened by how we performed.

If you look at how we've performed against our nearby rivals, over Xmas we've made up 2 points on Welling, Altrincham, Guiseley, Aldershot and Barrow (albeit losing ground to Southport, Halifax and Boreham Wood). Admittedly some of those have been due to postponements, but that may leave some of the above with hectic fixture schedules later in the season which may work in our favour.

What is important now is we maintain the performance and effort levels against Cheltenham and FGR against the other teams in the division. As I've said before, the fact we have Kidderminster, Halifax, Welling, Altrincham, Barrow, Chester and Southport all to play at Plainmoor before the seasons end could be critical if we can replicate anything like the boxing day performance.

Whether we will get to anywhere near to 50points, I don't know.

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