League Odds

[brucie]

Looking at the Vanarama Conference I was gobsmacked to see that we are a best priced 18/1 to win the league.
We are actually 11th favourites for the title!
The odds seemed all over the shop to me. Barnet are favourites and are a ludicrously bets priced 4.5 to win it. I think I am right in saying that all the teams they have played so far have been in the bottom 10.
Lincoln were the exception and Barnet lost that game.
Eastleigh are a best priced 10/1 (Almost half our price) - are they seriously a better bet than us to finish top?
We are also ranked behind the likes of Forest Green,Wrexham,Kiddy,Woking and Grimsby.
I am amazed we are such a generous price.

[ferrarilover]

It's got nothing to do with how likely the bookies think any particular team is to win the league.

Eastleigh have won a game they should have lost with a set piece goal in the 94th minute (the one on telly, was it Aldershot?) And another with a terrible OG in 90+. All that money, all that talent, and it's a massive chunk of luck which sees them in 7th rather than 15th.

That said, the infant table is largely irrelevant in terms of points and positions. At this stage, goal difference is a better indicator of the stronger teams and on that score, we're right up there.

Our GD is 11 better than Rovers' but we're just 4 points ahead of them. The former, from what I've seen, better demonstrates the gulf in class between the two sides.

Matt.

[Gullscorer]

Aren't the odds also a reflection of who's putting money on which horse..?? Given the current odds for the Gulls, I reckon now would be a good time to back us, before the odds shorten..

[ferrarilover]

It's precisely that, Gully. That's why Rovers were favourites for the Conference preseason and why Pompey were favourites for L2. The bookies are protecting their investment. They're much happier paying out 50 people at 20/1 if Torquay win it then they are paying out 20,000 people at 18/1 if Rovers do. Preseason, they were probably fair odds for each club based on genuine ability. Yet Rovers were something like 5/2 favourites, because that minimises losses in the event that the apocalypse occurrs and Rovers do actually win it.*

Matt.

Can you imagine how **** dreadful the rest of the division would have to be?

[happytorq]

Aren't the odds also a reflection of who's putting money on which horse..?? Given the current odds for the Gulls, I reckon now would be a good time to back us, before the odds shorten..

Yes.

It feels like I wheel out an explanation of how bookies' odds work every single season, but basically they're not a signifier of the chance of an event occurring, they simply demonstrate the weight of money that is expected to get put on them. You could relegate Chelsea from the premiership and place them in the conference with a team of players fielded from the lower reaches of the Clennon Valley seven a side league, and they'd still be hot favourites to win the league. Big names and "brand recognition" is huge in gambling, because the uninitiated have no idea what they're looking at. It's the same reason that England are always a ridiculous price to win..anything.

Torquay, being a small club even among small clubs, are nearly always over-priced for this exact reason.

[lucy6lucy]

Looking at the Vanarama Conference I was gobsmacked to see that we are a best priced 18/1 to win the league.
We are actually 11th favourites for the title!
The odds seemed all over the shop to me. Barnet are favourites and are a ludicrously bets priced 4.5 to win it. I think I am right in saying that all the teams they have played so far have been in the bottom 10.
Lincoln were the exception and Barnet lost that game.
Eastleigh are a best priced 10/1 (Almost half our price) - are they seriously a better bet than us to finish top?
We are also ranked behind the likes of Forest Green,Wrexham,Kiddy,Woking and Grimsby.
I am amazed we are such a generous price.

Now 10/1(Skybet)

[bixieupnorth]

12/1 bet365, had a few quid on before season started at 33s and have been chipping a few quid in here and there at various prices since the run began

[Gulliball]

Interesting figures came out from the FGR v Andy Mangan appeal last week. Forest Green tried to sack him for something pretty trivial, he appealed and his appeal was upheld. It was announced that he was owed £390 000 - this is for the remaining two and a half years of his contract, putting him at £3k per week. You knew that they were throwing money at it, but it's still shocking to see exactly how much.

[ferrarilover]

Where is this published, Gulli?

Matt.

[PlainmoorRoar]

The OP demonstrates brucies betting failings

[Gulliball]

Matt, it was a PDF that was linked to on another forum. On a phone just now but if you googled it I am sure it could be found. Was a Conference decision within the last fortnight.

[ferrarilover]

A Conference decision? That makes it much easier to find, CAS decisions are a minefield. Thanks.

Matt.

[Gulliball]

The update in the last few weeks was the CAS rejecting the appeal from FGR. Original decision was by the Conference (to side with Mangan).

[lucy6lucy]

Now 2nd favourites for title, 5-1 sky bet and 7-2 for promotion bet 365. The bookies have taken note, brucie I hope you had money when 18-1

[SuperNickyWroe]

Now 2nd favourites for title, 5-1 sky bet and 7-2 for promotion bet 365. The bookies have taken note, brucie I hope you had money when 18-1

I, like bixie, had a small (£20) bet on us at 33/1..............