Something to ponder

[Dexter]

Hi there chaps. I'm a daily reader of the forum but thought it's about time I set up an account!

I've done a bit of history checking and have found something for you all to ponder. I'm not a blind optimist and we may well be doomed, but have a look at this before you write us off 100%.

Here is the table in 2005/06 with 5 games to go. We were 3 games ahead of where we are now with 3 points more. 6 points behind and this really was 'the great escape'.


Here is the final table.


13 points from the last 5 games kept us up that year by 3 points. We were originally 'doomed', especially having to play title chasing Carlisle away.

I'm not saying this is going to happen again, but stranger things have happened in football. 3 points from York (A), Southend (A) and Scunthorpe (H) and we'll be in exactly the same position which in itself is a strange re occurrence. Our remaining 5 games after Scunthorpe are all against teams around us(- Dagenham H), so if the miracle does happen and we get a win this week we may still have the slimmest, and I mean slim, of chances.

Keep the faith!

[sam_]

Good post Dexter, personaly, I think our current squad is better than the squad that kept us up really. Nice to see some other optimism, and I think we can do it. With Mansfield, Exeter and Wycombe all in a row, it will be one of the most nervy endings to a season. I think 4 points from York and Southend, Scunthorpe game will be a loss most likely, although we beat Rochdale so you never know, 4 points from Rovers and Dagenham, then it's all so wide open. Keep the faith. We can do it.

[AustrianAndyGull]

Very interesting Dexter and it gives hope even in the face of such convincing evidence in support of relegation.

The problem is not just us winning games but we also have to rely on other teams dropping enough points in order for us to keep ahead of them. Obviously if we won 6, 7 or 8 games then we'd stay up I reckon but any less and it would be really touch and go.

To be honest I reckon playing away is our best chance of getting points on the board.I get the impression that Plainmoor reeks of on pitch decay and the atmosphere is oppressive at the minute. Night games seem to elicit more of a response from us. Are we all frigging vampires or summat?!! If not then there are a large percentage of our players that are werewolves. Not just ordinary werewolves either. Werewolves that are shit at football and shave regularly. A recipe for relegation.

[Gloomy Gull]

The most significant difference at the end of that season was that we were on the Atkins Diet, a manager with managerial experience of lower league football.

[Alpine Joe]

Wouldn't we all dearly love a similar run of form this season, and Dexter's stats remind us what can happen, however unlikely. In those last 5 games it seems that we fell just one goal short of scoring an average of 2 goals per match. The problem at the moment is that scoring two in a match is a rarity rather than the norm, and the signs just don't seem to be there that Benyon & Co will be able to replicate that level of scoring during the closing stages of season 2013/14.

Sadly, the likelihood of us again showing the same defensive organisation that saw us concede just one goal in those last 5 matches of season 2005/06 is also hard to imagine, but we must try to continue living in hope.

[kevgull]

Lightening striking twice comes to mind.

[Scott Brehaut]

Wouldn't we all dearly love a similar run of form this season, and Dexter's stats remind us what can happen, however unlikely. In those last 5 games it seems that we fell just one goal short of scoring an average of 2 goals per match. The problem at the moment is that scoring two in a match is a rarity rather than the norm, and the signs just don't seem to be there that Benyon & Co will be able to replicate that level of scoring during the closing stages of season 2013/14.

Sadly, the likelihood of us again showing the same defensive organisation that saw us concede just one goal in those last 5 matches of season 2005/06 is also hard to imagine, but we must try to continue living in hope.

ref our strikers - is it simply that they are all sh*t, or is it the case that they aren't getting the distribution they require?

[chunkygull]

ref our strikers - is it simply that they are all sh*t, or is it the case that they aren't getting the distribution they require?

The tactic of just simply hoofing hit and hope high balls towards the opposition goal and hoping a forward is going to get on the end of it and perform miracles or create something themselves is likely to present hardly any chances. The lack of distribution and clearcut or decent chances is the biggest problem.

A lot of top strikers only take one in 3 chances that come their way in a game, it would give our forwards a fighting chance if we actually created 3 chances at all.

[ferrarilover]

A decent striker would be turning these not-very-good chances into good chances and consequently scoring goals. Plenty of other teams in this division manage it and, lets face it, it's hardly as though any or all of them have the next Paul Scholes turning out every week. Northampton last year did absolutely nothing all season except hack 80 yard balls aimlessly forward, but because they have Fatso up front, they scored a load of goals.

Benyon a couple of weeks ago (Rochdale?) was 5 yards out with only the keeper to beat when the ball fell to him completely unmarked. My nan, because she is a better striker than Bennerz, would have simply struck the ball into the goal. Benyon, in his wisdom, decided to take about 1400 touches and, when he eventually dained to shoot, he found a defender on the line.

The balls we play into the middle from out wide today are no worse than the balls we used to play in to Tim Sills. Thing was that Tim was (pound for pound) a good striker, so he tucked them away. Today, we have disinterested Stockley and Enoch 'I'm not paid enough to jump' Showunmi, so the chances go begging.

Matt.

[AustrianAndyGull]

What I don't get is that we have Chappell and Bodin on the flanks. Both are well capable of tearing down the wings, doing a bit of trickery and whipping balls into the box. It doesn't even matter if the crosses aren't aimed at anyone in particular, just get balls whipped in constantly. A huge part of our problem other than having shit players is that we don't play to the strengths of the ones we have. Showunmi and Benners would love balls whipped into the area all day long instead of having to hold everything up and waiting all day for that quality through ball that never comes.

Our problem Scotty lad IMO is that we just don't create anything so they aren't getting any distribution whatsoever. The odd chance they do get becomes magnified as if they miss it (like the header straight at the keeper at the death on Saturday) then it becomes a big deal. As we know, Benners isn't Mandzukic and Showunmi isn't Drogba therefore we need to create more chances for them to score to give us a chance.

We have some pacy, tricky wingers so if they were used properly for once then we might get lucky. In addition to this, one thing I have noticed is that our full backs never get forward. I remember earlier on in the season and Tonge getting sent off at Morecambe for pulling down their lad who had broken free and caught an advanced Tonge out of position up the field. That doesn't happen anymore. Our back 4 are so static and I don't see the point when we can't even keep clean sheets. Just get Tonge overlapping and Cruise if necessary. We have a midfield of Manselll and Lathrope who with respect aren't going to create anything so that leaves the likes of Bodin / Goodwin and others who have just been piss poor leaving the front men to chase rainbows all day long. We are a devastatingly predictable team to play against and only good fortune and the opposition being totally shocking will see us escape. It doesn't have to be this way.

[ferrarilover]

Maybe it's just at home, but Tongue does do a lot of overlapping, particularly late on. O'Connor does more attacking than half our midfielders. Nico doesn't do it so much any more, but he's about a thousand years old, so that's understandable.

We are a bit predictable. The first goal against Rochdale was a bloody brilliant bit of football, all stemming from someone bothering to run off the ball. We saw an almost identical setup at Wombles, for the Stockley header at the far post.

I went to watch the youth game today (lost 3-2 to Exeter, our third single goal loss in a row). Our first goal was a peach. Keeper short to Odofin, Odofin long pass to the head of the winger, flicked header to a rapid overlapping LB who knocked a ball inside to the rapid centre forward who rounded the keeper and slotted home with aplomb. It was un-defendable. So much pace and movement that I'd like to see even a Premier League academy side deal with it. It all happened too quickly to be prevented. The ball went from our keeper to the back of their net in about 8 seconds and in not more than about 6 touches. The flicked header was beautifully judged, rather than simply being the fault of some clown getting too far under the ball. The little ball inside was perfectly weighted, the striker didn't break stride. The touch round the keeper would have graced Eden Hazard and the finish, although into an empty net, was from an angle which required some talent and the kid managed to find a finish to match the rest of the move. Had that been the first XI, the long ball from dofin (Downes) would have been flicked on for an Exeter throw by Showumni, because we wouldn't have had the runner to pick up the pass. It's bloody stupid that our nippers can manage it, but the "professionals" can't.

Matt.

[Sunnysideup]

In addition to this, one thing I have noticed is that our full backs never get forward. I remember earlier on in the season and Tonge getting sent off at Morecambe for pulling down their lad who had broken free and caught an advanced Tonge out of position up the field. That doesn't happen anymore. Our back 4 are so static and I don't see the point when we can't even keep clean sheets. Just get Tonge overlapping and Cruise if necessary.

Tonge did overlap well with Goodwin against Bury, and delivered some nice balls in.

[gullno4]

unfortunately this year our team is not capable of winning that amount of games

[standupsitdown]

Four of the 2005/6 bottom nine are still out of the League and three others have been to the Conference and come back up.
Only Bury & Notts County have avoided relegation.

[Glostergull]

Ohhh. If theres one thing i like. It's a nice ponder.