Can We Make the Play Offs?

[standupsitdown]

It's more of a mathematical exercise than a realistic hope now -

We are 11 points behind 7th having played the same number of games (more than 11 if Notts County pick up more than 3 points in their two games in hand).

If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date (1.8 per game) we would need 79 points.
That would be 2.37 per game. Say 14 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats.

If the 7th placed team gained only 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season (seems unlikely) we would need 74 points.
That would be 2.11 per game. Say 12 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats.

And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 20 - in 19 games.

Beating Wrexham (not easy) then Dover & Barnet (we should) would at least keep some interest in the play offs.

It will be disappointing and unusual if we have no chance of promotion or relegation for the last third of the season but hopefully we can continue the reasonable results of the last couple of months, finish top ten and build for next year.

[JimNichol'sdog]

I've no wish to be pessimistic or unduly detrimental to the current squad, but I have severe doubts that the current group of players are anywhere near good enough to make the play-offs.

Additionally, if they did reach them there is likely to be a similar scenario to the last close season when all of the quality players had been signed before Torquay entered the market. The result was a series of mediocre acquisitions.

[standupsitdown]

Having beaten one of our potential rivals for the play offs it looks very slightly more possible now, both in terms of the points gap and form.

We are 9 points behind 7th having played the same number of games (11 if Notts County win both of their two games in hand).

If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date (1.77 per game) we would need 78 points. Another 41.
That would be 2.28 per game. Say 13 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats.

If the 7th placed team gained only 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season (seems unlikely) we would need 73 points. Another 36.
That would be 2.00 per game. Say 11 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats.

And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 17 - in 18 games.

We would need to go on an incredible run but should win the next two games which should at least reduce the gap between us and 10th.

After that we’d probably need something like 11 wins from the last 16 games, plus two or three draws.

[portugull]

Despite our win against Wrexham it is a very tall order to make 7th place by the 15th May.

In our favour we have already played 12 of our 20 games against the Top 10 teams as at today. We have taken just 10 points from a possible 36 with just 2 wins V Stockport & Wrexham.

We are improving with 6 wins from the last 9 games losing just twice to Eastleigh and Solihull.

I think the best we can do is 70 points which is 9 wins 6 draws and 3 defeats. This is only just a realistic target and we need someone to score goals urgently like this week!

[Willowgull]

I would love to think so but realistically, we haven't got
the fire power to make the playoffs.

[portugull]

I agree Willowgull but Gary Johnson is a master tactician at creating winning teams and he knows we are just 1 or 2 building blocks away from a very good team.

I expect a master stroke is just around the corner and he will bring in the one player we really lack especially if Danny Wright is out for more than a couple more games.

[desperado]

My head is spinning after reading Portugull and Standups posts ! Though I have had a couple of drinks - don't think we'll need 78 points though. To keep the hope alive we would have to win the next two v Dover and Barnet and take a point off Boreham Wood who I am watching now , 3 ex Torquay players in the team who have scored 25 goals between them this season ! Think we should have kept Scott Boden ! and Josh Rees was very impressive in his spell here. 4 goals conceded in their last 11 National League games, they are always an incredibly difficult side to beat.

[desperado]

Hope Gary was watching that and has plotted a way to score against BW !

[Dazza]

I am sure you right about Rees and maybe Boden. However both were on loan and neither showed, as far as I know, any inclination to stay.

[DB57]

My head is spinning after reading Portugull and Standups posts ! Though I have had a couple of drinks - don't think we'll need 78 points though. To keep the hope alive we would have to win the next two v Dover and Barnet and take a point off Boreham Wood who I am watching now , 3 ex Torquay players in the team who have scored 25 goals between them this season ! Think we should have kept Scott Boden ! and Josh Rees was very impressive in his spell here. 4 goals conceded in their last 11 National League games, they are always an incredibly difficult side to beat.

And no goals conceded in five FA Cup games - a tough nut to crack

[DWB]

So we are now 6 points, probably 7 points (with our poor goal difference) off a playoff place. With 3 of the next 4 games at home can we dare believe that we could crash into the playoff positions soon??. Yes we can and then who knows??

[Wolborough]

Only if we get more forward power surely?

[Admiral]

7 wins from our last 10 (since Weymouth..)
2.2 ppg
That form for the rest of the season would see us finish on 77-78 pts, which I don't think we'll need.
Realistically Solihull are the team to catch, I expect Wrexham will finish 4/5th

[Admiral]

Reality is we're just about in the mix (major outsiders of course) and a win against Barnet will cement that.

[standupsitdown]

We’re six points from 7th, but with a far worse goal difference and have played more than most of our rivals.

We need to overtake three of Grimsby, Notts Co, Wrexham & Solihull, and assume that in doing so we’ll also overtake Dagenham. Also can’t discount Southend, who although two points behind us are on an excellent run (and play us last game of the season). Also worth considering that although Boreham Wood lost in the Trophy today, they have an FA Cup game at Everton which may be a distraction and will have to fit in four more league games than us. If we can beat them on Tuesday week it might bring them into the equation as catchable. Likewise Bromley in the Trophy and we beat them.

If we gave one point for each game in hand Notts Co, Wrexham & Solihull would all have 47 and Grimsby 46 having played one game more. So we’d need to make up 8 points in 17 games (7 if our goal difference improves considerably).

If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date (1.77 per game) we would need 78 points. Another 38.
That would be 2.24 per game. Say 12 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats.

If the 7th placed team gained only 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season we would need 73 points. Another 33.
That would be 1.94 per game. Say 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats.

And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 15 - in 17 games. Say 8 more wins than defeats, would be expected to increase our goal difference by at least 8 and probably more.

It’s reasonable to think that a couple of the four rivals won’t end the season as well as they started it and that one (Wrexham?) may do better. However as we need to overtake three teams we’d need three of the four to fall away (or one from higher to do even worse).

In our favour is that three of our four rivals are still in the Trophy so will have additional games to play. And that with a number of rivals, they will all drop points playing each other. Against is that there’s no real battle for relegation this year so teams at the bottom have less to play for.

I’d therefore suggest that we’ll need between 73 & 78 points to get 7th. My best estimate now is that we’d need 75 points, 2.06 per game, another 35 points.
That could be 11 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats. Unlikely, but possible and certainly more so than it looked a few weeks ago.