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So two games to go. We need to overtake two teams. Can we do it?
Crucially do we have to get something at Dover?
Here are the fixtures:

Torquay 47 Points (-10)
Dover away
North Ferriby home

Braintree 48 points (-21)
Barrow home
Aldershot away

York 48 points (-15)
Woking away
Forest Green home

Guiseley 49 points (-17)
Bromley away
Solihull home

Solihull 51 points (-15)
Eastleigh home
Guiseley away

Woking 51 points (-14)
York home
Dagenham away

Chester 52 points (-3)
Sutton away
Boreham home


Dover need to win next or they may not make the play offs. It’s a hard game but we’ve matched Aldershot & Lincoln in our last two away games.
A draw would be a good result.
Stopping Dover winning would also have the bonus of keeping Aldershot in with a chance of the playoffs when they play Braintree.
We have to assume that we’ll beat Ferriby if we are to have a chance. And we should beat them.

If we lose at Dover then we’re relying on two of Braintree, York and Guiseley failing to win either of their two games (and in Guiseley's case getting only one point).

With Barrow still having an outside chance of the play offs as of next week and Aldershot probably needing a win in their last game to get in the play offs (assuming they win at Ferriby next week), then there’s a good chance Braintree won’t get a win in either.
York will have a hard game at Woking who aren’t yet safe but although Forest Green are safely in the play offs, as we’ve found before a top team can often be beaten by determined opposition when they rest players or don’t try too hard in the last game. There has to be a fair chance that York will get one win to reach 51 points.
Guiseley have easier games and I’d expect them to pick up at least two points.

So lose at Dover and we’re probably still in with a chance although would be favourites to go down (with Braintree I suspect).

If we get a point at Dover (and beat Ferriby) then Braintree would need four points which I don’t think they’ll get.
York would also need 4 points which they may get, but it’s significantly less likely than 3. Guiseley would need 3 points which they may well get but in doing so they may well have to beat Solihull who would be brought into the equation needing one point if we draw at Dover. However buoyed by today’s win Solihull might get something at home to mid table Eastleigh next week.
Woking would also be brought into it needing one point but if they got this next week it would be at the expense of York. The ease of their last game at Dagenham may well depend on whether Dagenham are already safe in the play offs, so we’d hope they lose at Wrexham next week.

Win at Dover and v Ferriby and Chester might be catchable,. Although they have easy fixtures (in a season of if onlys, if only we’d just drawn with them two weeks ago).

So lose at Dover and I’d estimate a 30% chance of staying up (assuming of course that we beat Ferriby).
Draw at Dover and I’d estimate 60%.
Win and it would be 80% plus.

Lose and we could be relegated next week but that would need two of - Braintree beat Barrow, York beat Woking and Guiseley get at least a point at Bromley.
Draw and it will definitely go to the final week.

I wish I’d been there today but now I’ve worked out the permutations it’s time to talk to the wife about a day in Dover next week and likely visit to Torquay the week after.

Although Dover will be a massively tough game, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion we will lose. They have huge pressure on them today after today's setback, which could give them a bit of the jitters which - if we are on our game - could capitalise on.

I've said before, but if we were in Dovers position this is exactly the sort of game we would freeze at, so maybe just this once it might happen in our favour.

I'm recalling the Ling playoff season, where our final two games were a home match v mid table Crewe and away at relegation haunted Hereford with an incredibly porous defence. We contrived to take 1 point from those two matches, missed automatic promotion and faltered in the playoffs.

It would be nice if stuff like that could come back around and Dover blow their season - to our benefit

Dover also play on Tuesday night

TUST_Member_Rob wrote: 17 Apr 2017, 19:26 Dover also play on Tuesday night

That's next week.

Great win today, but, and just being honest, survival is still a big ask here. Predicting results at this stage of season is almost impossible, there are a lot of sides with nothing to play for, who, of course can be unpredictable, you just never know what type of team they're going to put out, or what mentality they'll have on the day, so no relying on any of those teams to do us a favour in the other games.

York v Woking is an interesting fixture, as it stands now a Woking win in this game would be a great result, and Braintree having two play-off chasing sides might help our cause, as for the rest of the games no idea.

Depending on other results, a point at Dover could leave us going into the final game out side the bottom 4 (Although a win is needed in reality ) so we have to say, yes, of course the team can do it.

All I wish is for York and Braintree to lose their next two games and we draw one of our two remaining fixtures.

forevertufc wrote: 17 Apr 2017, 20:15 Great win today, but, and just being honest, survival is still a big ask here. Predicting results at this stage of season is almost impossible,

Yep. I would have said York were a certainty to see off Wrexham today. Sometimes when a side has hauled themselves up from a seemingly impossible position they heave a sigh of relief, take their foot off the gas and find themselves slipping back into the mire. Lets's hope this is the case with York.

York are sh*t. They're going down and good riddance.

Superb win today for the Gulls under immense pressure and you have to give Nico and the players credit for that. A loss today and it's pretty much goodnight Vienna but they dug in and got the win.

Obviously a win against North Ferriby is a minimum, watch out for their striker Reece Thompson - ex Frickley and York and very dangerous potent striker who has had some 'issues' but is capable of playing league football comfortably. He scored again at Barrow today. Pretty much he is the only player Torquay need to keep under wraps as I don't see any threat in that Ferriby side without Thommo.

A draw at least at Dover is vital as i'm not sure a win v Ferriby will be enough if the Dover game ends in defeat.

Just so pleased for everyone tonight though and it prolongs the agony I guess. Which is a good thing?

Forget the permutations Win at Dover and that will see us safe.

Yes of course we will need to beat North Ferriby but the momentum swing if we win next week will be massive. There is hardly much quality in this league at all which is probably the main factor which gives us a chance next Saturday. Hard game - Yes. Kinnear is good at playing the officials.

What we don't need is players like Young pushing someone in the net. Cool heads if possible.

I don't think we need to worry about teams in the play offs easing off. Its generally accepted that the teams who win play offs are the ones with momentum. Forest Green wont want to go in with two or three defeats on the bounce.