29 May 2021. Who will be Top of the National League?

knightmaregull · Post by **knightmaregull** » 24 Apr 2021, 21:18

I think Sutton are on the slide and just can't see our threadbare team keeping recent results up. I take Stockport to just get over the line as things stand.....

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 25 Apr 2021, 16:30

When I started this thread on 16 April I had been through the remaining fixtures to assess our chances of automatic promotion.
10 days later the situation is a little clearer given that the gap between 4th and 5th is 6 points and the Top 4 have vastly superior goal differences.
It is highly likely now that Top Spot will go to Torquay, Hartlepool, Sutton or Stockport.

The 2 form teams are Stockport 19 points from 27,& Torquay 22 points from 27.
Sutton are fading with 13 points from 27.

Hartlepool have 6 games left including a visit to Sutton & Bromley. 12 from 18 would give them 79 points.
Sutton have 8 games left including 4 in 11 days between 1st and 11th May. Key games are Notts County away and Hartlepool at Home. With 24 points to play for Sutton cannot be ruled out but will they last the pace. They are part time pros so 12 from 24 would give them 78 points.
Stockport are the danger team. 7 games left and only Halifax away and Torquay at Home presenting them with a big test. You have got to fancy their chances.5 wins and 2 draws would give them 79 points.

And so to our beloved Torquay United. There is no doubt we have a tough run in with 4 of our 7 games against Clubs fighting for the play offs and we have to play Stockport Away.

I think we need a minimum of 13 points 4 wins and a draw from 7 games to get to 80 points and that might not be enough.
We know we have a great Manager, a team that will give their all to the last whistle but who will get the good fortune to finish Top?

desperado · Post by **desperado** » 26 Apr 2021, 11:01

Think we may need another 15 points but who knows. Could do with getting our goal difference boosted too for that extra point.
The last time Ben Wynter came up with a vital point saving late equaliser half a dozen games from the end we went on to win the League. Let's just try and beat Aldershot first though and hope Barnet who seem to be improving can do something at Sutton.

knightmaregull · Post by **knightmaregull** » 28 Apr 2021, 08:09

Well, no matter how many times I look at the table and remaining fixtures it's impossible to call at the moment. If Torquay do manage to pull it off then it would be an absolutely gigantic achievement with the players left available.

You can make a case for any of the contenders but one thing we can safely say is that whoever gets top spot will have deserved it over the season, and the others will forever curse their respective dodgy patches.

The fifth league division in all but name this year.

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 01 May 2021, 18:20

With Hartlepool 3.0 up it looks as if all four contenders will have won today.
I can’t see all three of Sutton, Hartlepool and Stockport dropping many points (obviously Sutton v Hartlepool means one has to drop points but that’s balanced by Sutton having a game in hand).
I think we’ll need to win all five to win the league.
If we don’t finish top not dropping out the top three is crucial and is by no means certain. Stockport away could be critical in that regard.

Minneapolisgull · Post by **Minneapolisgull** » 01 May 2021, 18:42

standupsitdown wrote: ↑01 May 2021, 18:20 With Hartlepool 3.0 up it looks as if all four contenders will have won today.
I can’t see all three of Sutton, Hartlepool and Stockport dropping many points (obviously Sutton v Hartlepool means one has to drop points but that’s balanced by Sutton having a game in hand).
I think we’ll need to win all five to win the league.
If we don’t finish top not dropping out the top three is crucial and is by no means certain. Stockport away could be critical in that regard.

I would be very surprised if we win the last 5 games. Hope we do if we did manage I am sure we would go up as Champions. Also be surprised if the other challenges can show that sort of form for the run in.
I think we will have many more twists and turns and with hopefully fans allowed back towards the end. We are in for a very exciting run in.
Get a result Monday then some rest and the schedule is a little easier (game a week for the run in) could see some big players return.

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 02 May 2021, 09:19

As we move in to the final run of games it is interesting to look at the Form Table on Flashscore.

On the last 10 games we are Top with 25 points followed by Stockport 24 and Hartlepool 22. Sutton are 8th in the Table.

On the last 5 games it is Stockport, Hartlepool and Torquay all with 13 points but in that order on Goal Difference.

Since we lost at Maidenhead we have won 9 out of 11. AMAZING. Well done the lads.

desperado · Post by **desperado** » 02 May 2021, 13:59

Shame our goal difference is inferior to Sutton and Stockport now after being so good for so long. With a bit of luck we could have had 2 or 3 more yesterday. Could be crucial. Unfair that Sutton have an extra day to recover , when it was known there would be no crowds on Bank Holiday Monday it's beyond me why the National League couldn't have switched all games to Tuesday night. Then again they don't seem that with it do they judging by other decisions/ non decisions this season.

DWB · Post by **DWB** » 02 May 2021, 14:53

desperado wrote: ↑02 May 2021, 13:59 Shame our goal difference is inferior to Sutton and Stockport now after being so good for so long. With a bit of luck we could have had 2 or 3 more yesterday. Could be crucial. Unfair that Sutton have an extra day to recover , when it was known there would be no crowds on Bank Holiday Monday it's beyond me why the National League couldn't have switched all games to Tuesday night. Then again they don't seem that with it do they judging by other decisions/ non decisions this season.

Agreed, however Notts County will also have had that extra day and they really do need to win this one to have any chance of a playoff place and they have to go for it so maybe we will see what their ambitions are. Hoping, no expecting, a Notts County victory!

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 03 May 2021, 18:59

I think Sutton are our main rival now.
We have to lose two games for Stockport or Hartlepool to catch us and in that case Sutton would probably finish above us anyway.
We are four points ahead of Sutton but they have two games in hand. Their goal difference is one better than ours.
These are the two sets of fixtures.

Sutton – 72 points

Notts County A 4th May
Weymouth H 8th May
Woking H 11th May
Maidenhead A 15th May
Hartlepool H 22nd May
Barnet A 29th May

Torquay – 76 points

Bromley H 8th May
Stockport A 15th May
Barnet H 22nd May
Altringham A 29th May

If we win all our games (88 points) Sutton will have to win all six (90 points) or possibly 5 wins and a draw (down to goal difference).
If we draw one (86 points) Sutton can afford to lose one or possibly draw two (down to goal difference).
If we lose one (85 points) Sutton can afford to drop 4 points (one defeat) or 5 points (one defeat & one draw – down to goal difference).
If we lose one and draw one (83 points) Sutton can afford to lose two.
Any worse than that and we allow Stockport & Hartlepool back into it.

I don’t think Sutton will win all their games but I don’t think we can afford any defeats and may well need to win all four.

Goal difference could be crucial and Sutton probably have more easier games to boost theirs.

If Sutton fail to win at Notts County, who really need a win to get back into the play offs, things will look a lot better.

Finally, today’s results mean that with our better goal difference we probably only need two wins to secure third place and a home playoff semi-final.
Based on current form if we got to the final it may well be against Stockport which would be far from easy.

Uptongull · Post by **Uptongull** » 03 May 2021, 19:56

Just seen that Notts County have sacked their assistant manager with immediate effect?! Seems odd to sack the assistant. Must have done something serious. I just hope they're not a team in disarray tomorrow against Sutton.

SouthHams · Post by **SouthHams** » 04 May 2021, 00:53

Good summary SASD

I think all we can do is focus on our own games and hope that Sutton fall over (lose) at least once.
That may or may not happen, but we don't control it.
Win all our own games and we give ourselves a huge chance. Lose just one and we may well not get there.

gullsgullsgulls · Post by **gullsgullsgulls** » 04 May 2021, 08:26

Uptongull wrote: ↑03 May 2021, 19:56 Just seen that Notts County have sacked their assistant manager with immediate effect?! Seems odd to sack the assistant. Must have done something serious. I just hope they're not a team in disarray tomorrow against Sutton.

Given their recent run of form, this could be exactly the kind of curveball their team need to rally together and get a result. They really couldn't be doing any worse right now...

grockle · Post by **grockle** » 04 May 2021, 10:58

gullsgullsgulls wrote: ↑04 May 2021, 08:26 Given their recent run of form, this could be exactly the kind of curveball their team need to rally together and get a result. They really couldn't be doing any worse right now...

I understand he said something inappropriate to one of the players.
Anyhow, whatever happens between now and the end of the season, we will finish above Notts County. :~D
I certainly would have accepted that as a target for this season.
I think it is definitely a 3 horse race now, with Stockport, Sutton, and ourselves as the only realistic contenders. It is still Sutton's to lose, but Stockport are in fantastic form and banging in the goals as well.

Mike’s A Magyar · Post by **Mike’s A Magyar** » 04 May 2021, 16:18

Good Afternoon All

Partick Thistle fan here coming in peace and you are my local team. Really hope you can emulate us by winning your league, hopefully with a game to spare. You more than deserve to be back in league football.

Despite not being able to watch you this season my interest has been maintained by a tenner at 16/1 to win the league.

All the Best.

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