Will we stay up?

[thebigp1]

With York winning our task looks even harder. They are now 9 points above us but it’s effectively 10 given the goal difference. I just don’t see how we catch any of the teams currently on 46 points. That leaves Gateshead and Aldershot and both have enough winnable games remaining.

With those saying 4 wins may be enough I think that’s optimistic, especially given our GD. 5 wins, which is obviously a massive ask would put us on 52 points which is the kind of total I think we would need. 6 points is required over the bank holiday weekend to keep any hope alive.

[happytorq]

we just have to keep wining our games. theoretically, we could get to the York game knowing that a win could see us level on points. Don't think it'll happen - I see York getting a point vs Halifax, and you'd be sectioned if you really think we'll be on a 4 game winning streak by then - but you never know.

York probably deserved to win tonight- Barnet made 6 changes from their Saturday game and really weren't very good.

[desperado]

Think you're right. We've left our mini
revival too late. We need Aldershot to capitulate now. Trouble is they play Yeovil Friday, we need both to lose really ! but guess a draw is ok but we simply have to win both Easter games.

[standupsitdown]

York have to play Chesterfield & Notts Co. so we’d hope they lose them.
Us which we have to win.
Halifax which they may well win and Aldershot which if they win it will deny Aldershot points. Both are home.
So they may well get 6 more points which would mean 52 which even with 5 wins we wouldn’t overtake them.

[happytorq]

Gateshead have the games in hand but they're going to be playing basically every 3 or 4 days now, I'd imagine. Yeovil tomorrow (draw please?) and then Scunthorpe on Friday. Assuming we can beat Eastliegh, Scunthorpe winning that game is probably the best result for us. They have a few games against mid-table side, so you never know what's going to happen there. But they do have to play Dorking, Woking (trying to secure home tie in the playoffs) so...you never know.

Aldershot are in freefall, but their next game is against Yeovil on Friday - so there again, you're probably hoping for a draw - and they also have to play Scunthorpe and York before the end of the season.

[standupsitdown]

Aldershot have Yeovil, Scunthorpe & Altringham at home.
Eastleigh & York away.
If they win two of their three home games and lose at Eastleigh that gives them 49 plus whatever they get at York.

So both York & Aldershot may have 49 plus whatever they get from the game between them.
In that case the 49 or 50 points would be the target for us, plus one for goal difference. So 5 wins or 4 wins and one or two draws.

[standupsitdown]

Yeovil still have 7 games to play but only one more point than us.
I don’t think they’ll get more than 3 wins but if they do it will be likely they’re taking points from Gateshead and or Aldershot (or Dorking) probably reducing them to under 50.

I think 4 wins will take us above Yeovil but we may well need 5 wins to jump one more place and stay up.

We’ll have a bit more idea after Gateshead v Yeovil tomorrow and a lot more after Friday’s matches.

[Admiral]

Bad result for us last night. We’re all discounting Gateshead, but they could easily only take 1-2 pts from their 3 games in hand. That’s probably what we’re relying on, I can’t see us going on top 3 form. Things can change very quickly in football though so who knows what will happen over the next weekend.

[Mr Tea808]

Hear me out folks, York winning last night probably was a good thing, by the time we play them, surely they'll be safe?, We could be playing a team that are already thinking about Mallorca and their sun loungers?, Plus agent Mark Ellis plays for them!!, Maybe he'll have a nightmare game!

[SuperNickyWroe]

I hate "predictions" - It's no good relying on other teams - we have to keep winning and hope everything then drops into place.

[toastkid]

So long as we keep winning, we can keep speculating. Let's win on good Friday and talk more!

[Cheddargull]

Hear me out folks, York winning last night probably was a good thing, by the time we play them, surely they'll be safe?,

No it wasnt. We need as many teams as possible above us in a catchable position. York along with a number of other clubs are now nine points ahead of us with a superior goal difference and I think it is very unlikely we can catch that. This leaves only Yeovil, Gateshead and Aldershot within ten points of us with only 18 to play for and we have to better two of them, a very hard task.

[standupsitdown]

A key factor in whether we will need five wins or 4 wins and a draw or two will be the results between our rivals.
Draws on the whole would be good but it would probably be good for Yeovil to beat at least one of the rivals as they are the easiest for us to catch.
Obviously we need a remarkable run of results ourselves but we also need two other clubs to drop a good number of points.
Avoiding relegation is still very much an outside chance.

[SuperNickyWroe]

A key factor in whether we will need five wins or 4 wins and a draw or two will be the results between our rivals.
Draws on the whole would be good but it would probably be good for Yeovil to beat at least one of the rivals as they are the easiest for us to catch.
Obviously we need a remarkable run of results ourselves but we also need two other clubs to drop a good number of points.
Avoiding relegation is still very much an outside chance.

Disagree,
Bottom line is we need five wins to even give us a chance - regardless of other teams.
If we don't achieve that or very close to that, what other teams do is irrelevant.

[standupsitdown]

Disagree,
Bottom line is we need five wins to even give us a chance - regardless of other teams.
If we don't achieve that or very close to that, what other teams do is irrelevant.

I agree that we will probably need five wins - but it would be relevant if two other teams only picked up a few more points hence the total required was a bit lower. The total required will be less if two teams do very badly or if matches between rivals are draws.
Possibly four wins and two draws might be enough but potentially might even need five wins and a draw.