by Neal » 05 Jun 2015, 07:08
The problem with all this, is that you will NEVER really know. Because you have limited information. You don't really know the relationship dynamics behind the scenes. You don't really know, and I mean really know the financial situation over the past x years, some people at the club probably don't even know, only the accountants.
Learning from your mistakes, who really does do that in reality, that's why as humans we continually make mistakes, and don't tell me none of you haven't.
look, just one simple example, choosing a new manager. You will never know if they will be successful at your club or not, its a punt in the end, Mike Bateson alluded to that when he contributed on the forum. Lets just say you have a choice between manager a and b, and more likely it would also be c d and e.
Manager a has a cv that has some successes (which he highlights of course) and a couple of failures but is termed "experienced". He will want a good wack, lets say 120k and a rolling contract.
Manager b its his first job in management, got lots of enthusiasm and is a hard worker. He wants 75k and a 2 year deal
Mmmmmmm...... If either come off your ok. But.... the probability is that they wont. if a doesn't your f8cked. But probably 'a' slightly more chance of success than 'b'
I tell you, that's a hard decision at the time, without hindsight etc etc. Fans seem to think that's its piss easy and the directors who are mainly successful business men just cant make the right decision. Ok you choose manager a because the fans are calling for that. Then you find out that a couple of teams in your league have got new investment from Russian Billionaires, ah that's a problem, he better be shit hot this new manager a then. In the end the choice is based on probability and how much you want to gamble.
The problem with all this, is that you will NEVER really know. Because you have limited information. You don't really know the relationship dynamics behind the scenes. You don't really know, and I mean really know the financial situation over the past x years, some people at the club probably don't even know, only the accountants.
Learning from your mistakes, who really does do that in reality, that's why as humans we continually make mistakes, and don't tell me none of you haven't.
look, just one simple example, choosing a new manager. You will never know if they will be successful at your club or not, its a punt in the end, Mike Bateson alluded to that when he contributed on the forum. Lets just say you have a choice between manager a and b, and more likely it would also be c d and e.
Manager a has a cv that has some successes (which he highlights of course) and a couple of failures but is termed "experienced". He will want a good wack, lets say 120k and a rolling contract.
Manager b its his first job in management, got lots of enthusiasm and is a hard worker. He wants 75k and a 2 year deal
Mmmmmmm...... If either come off your ok. But.... the probability is that they wont. if a doesn't your f8cked. But probably 'a' slightly more chance of success than 'b'
I tell you, that's a hard decision at the time, without hindsight etc etc. Fans seem to think that's its piss easy and the directors who are mainly successful business men just cant make the right decision. Ok you choose manager a because the fans are calling for that. Then you find out that a couple of teams in your league have got new investment from Russian Billionaires, ah that's a problem, he better be shit hot this new manager a then. In the end the choice is based on probability and how much you want to gamble.