The Final 2 Games

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The Final 2 Games

by Gullscorer » 24 Apr 2014, 20:59

We won't be relegated.. :)

The Final 2 Games

by AustrianAndyGull » 24 Apr 2014, 20:22

I'm gonna be even more pessimistic and say we'll beat Mansfield but we ain't gonna beat Wycombe! :na: :lol:

The Final 2 Games

by Dave_Pougher » 24 Apr 2014, 19:10

Probably being Mr Pessimistic here but we ain't gonna beat Mansfield.

The Final 2 Games

by tomogull » 22 Apr 2014, 22:11

In reality, yesterday's result merely prolongs the agony. The chances of us staying up are virtually nil. But as Bixie says - it aint gonna happen, but it bloody well could !!

The Final 2 Games

by standupsitdown » 22 Apr 2014, 20:58

standupsitdown wrote:100-1 on seems remarkabley good odds.
Obviously we are firm favourites to go down but I would have thought maybe 6-1 on.

Just looked on Betfair - we're roughly 10-1 to stay up.
That sounds about right to me.

The Final 2 Games

by standupsitdown » 22 Apr 2014, 20:53

100-1 on seems remarkabley good odds.
Obviously we are firm favourites to go down but I would ahve thought maybe 6-1 on.

The Final 2 Games

by kevgull » 22 Apr 2014, 19:58

bixieupnorth wrote:if we do manage to beat mansfield and wycombe were to lose at home to the gas, then surely if we were to beat wycombe in the last game we would definately finish above them. so the gas would be safe and we would only need to worry about northampton not getting more than a point from their two games, obv if they lose one and we win two then the 3 goal difference (-23 v -20) would be reeled in and we could finish above them on goals scored at the very worst (ie minimum of 2 x 1-0 wins for us and a 1-0 defeat and a draw for them would lead to -21 gd each)

wheres that bbc prediction machine now we need it!!??

it aint gonna happen, but it bloody well could!!

If you checkout Sky bet we are 1/100 favourites to go down. Northampton are 7/4

That's all you need to know.

The Final 2 Games

by bixieupnorth » 22 Apr 2014, 15:26

if we do manage to beat mansfield and wycombe were to lose at home to the gas, then surely if we were to beat wycombe in the last game we would definately finish above them. so the gas would be safe and we would only need to worry about northampton not getting more than a point from their two games, obv if they lose one and we win two then the 3 goal difference (-23 v -20) would be reeled in and we could finish above them on goals scored at the very worst (ie minimum of 2 x 1-0 wins for us and a 1-0 defeat and a draw for them would lead to -21 gd each)

wheres that bbc prediction machine now we need it!!??

it aint gonna happen, but it bloody well could!!

The Final 2 Games

by Gazzableedsgull » 22 Apr 2014, 14:40

It's just unfortunate that if we stay up, Exeter can't go down haha

The Final 2 Games

by CP Gull » 22 Apr 2014, 13:53

PlainmoorRoar wrote:seeing as Bristol are home to Mansfield on the final day really hope they beat Wycombe on Saturday!
Have to agree. The best scenario for us, should we actually win at Mansfield, is a Rovers win at Wycombe next Saturday. As we know, a draw in that game would send us down and while a Wycombe win would leave us still in with a shout of catching Rovers, given that they are at home to Mansfield on the final day, I could see them getting the result they need in that game.

If Rovers win and we win, then we would go into the final game at home to Wycombe with a chance to overhaul them. Of course all of this would be immaterial if Northampton win at Dagenham, but should we win our final two games then we can (probably) afford Northampton to pick up ONE point in their final two games (away at Dagenham and home to Oxford) but clearly no more than that. A Wycombe win on Saturday against Rovers would seem less attractive a proposition to me as not only would they probably still have something to play for, they would come here knowing that a draw here would guarantee their safety (not ideal) and that would of course send us down regardless of what we do next weekend. Even if we managed to win both we would still be relying on others to help us out, with a Mansfield win at Rovers needed and an Oxford win at Northampton (although a draw might even be good enough if the Cobblers lose at the Daggers).

The Final 2 Games

by PlainmoorRoar » 22 Apr 2014, 11:46

seeing as Bristol are home to Mansfield on the final day really hope they beat Wycombe on Saturday!

The Final 2 Games

by PlainmoorRoar » 22 Apr 2014, 11:46

seeing as Bristol are home to Mansfield on the final day really hope they beat Wycombe on Saturday!

The Final 2 Games

by hector » 21 Apr 2014, 20:32

happytorq wrote:Yep - we have to win without thinking about the other teams. If results go our way, great - if not, at least we did what we could at the end.

Looking at all those 1-0 defeats, though - if only 3 of them had been draws, we'd be in a way better position. that's the depressing thing for me; being in so many tight games and not even getting a point out of them.
I had thought something similar. So many home games lost by 1 goal recently. So frustrating.

The Final 2 Games

by lucy6lucy » 21 Apr 2014, 20:30

We are really being very optimistic. We have to win at Mansfield to have any chance of survival, they are are in good form. I am not knocking the team, but it's too late. We should never have lost to Northampton at home, Accrington at home. Morecambe's late equaliser was another blow. We have had our chances as the other teams are equally shit. It's just the ultimate disappointment

The Final 2 Games

by CP Gull » 21 Apr 2014, 20:23

stefano wrote: If we did win the last 2 games a draw for Northampton plus a defeat wouldn't necessarily relegate us on it's own. Our goal difference is now quite close to theirs so 2 wins for us and none for Northampton could see us slip above them on goal difference.

That would probably mean that Wycombe and Bristol Rovers will draw putting us down anyway! ;-)
Actually I can confirm that if we WIN both our games (worst case scenario only by one goal in both matches) and Northampton draw one and lose one (worst case scenario only by one goal) then unless the games Northampton are involved in are particularly high scoring i.e like a 4-3 defeat or something of that ilk ... Then in all probability we are guaranteed to finish above Northampton by virtue of GOALS scored. We are currently +3 on them and so the games they are involved in would need to be pretty high scoring for them to be able to overtake us... as a minimum they would need to score FIVE goals in their next two games to even draw level in the scenario I have outlined above ... pretty unlikely given their season long struggle to score goals.

So, to sum it all up, it is not necessarily the case that if we win both our games all the other teams must lose both of theirs to survive as in all probability Northampton would need more than just the one point from their remaining two fixtures to overtake us!

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