by hector » 01 Apr 2014, 05:54
There was an article in the Herald about these 18 points being all we had left to reach the target CH himself set of 54 points. It also suggests, somehwat optimistically, that we are 'just' 7 points behind, as though that isn't very much when you have 18 to claim.
Maybe not, if you had the remotest prospect of winning any of those games but for a team that has won 9 out of 40, winning 6 out of 6 - in fact even scoring in 6 out of 6 - is as likely Lord Lucan riding into town on Shergar.
The 7 points behind is a misnomer anyway. We need 8 to overcome Wycombe and to do that you need to use up 3 games (3 straight wins) and hope they do not gain a single point during those 3 games, or use up 4 games (2 wins and 2 draws) and again, hope Wycombe lose 4 games, and then at least match their results in the other 2 or 3, depending how the 8 points are achieved.
The problem is that Wycombe have three rather easy games coming up. Each point they gain, because they will surely gain at least 1 means the whole formula of what is needed changes again. They could easily get 4 points from that run, meaning we need 12 points...and all the while we have to hope that Northampton don't pick up points as well...
to catch Northampton we need 4 or 5 points - that would use up at least 2 games to make that up, and then match them for final 4 games.
to catch Wycombe 8 points (described above)
to catch Portsmouth 10 points (would use up 4 games - that we have to win and they have to lose)
It is a hopeless task and it's not going to happen. Conference football is inevitable and has been for weeks, in fact months.
There was an article in the Herald about these 18 points being all we had left to reach the target CH himself set of 54 points. It also suggests, somehwat optimistically, that we are 'just' 7 points behind, as though that isn't very much when you have 18 to claim.
Maybe not, if you had the remotest prospect of winning any of those games but for a team that has won 9 out of 40, winning 6 out of 6 - in fact even scoring in 6 out of 6 - is as likely Lord Lucan riding into town on Shergar.
The 7 points behind is a misnomer anyway. We need 8 to overcome Wycombe and to do that you need to use up 3 games (3 straight wins) and hope they do not gain a single point during those 3 games, or use up 4 games (2 wins and 2 draws) and again, hope Wycombe lose 4 games, and then at least match their results in the other 2 or 3, depending how the 8 points are achieved.
The problem is that Wycombe have three rather easy games coming up. Each point they gain, because they will surely gain at least 1 means the whole formula of what is needed changes again. They could easily get 4 points from that run, meaning we need 12 points...and all the while we have to hope that Northampton don't pick up points as well...
to catch Northampton we need 4 or 5 points - that would use up at least 2 games to make that up, and then match them for final 4 games.
to catch Wycombe 8 points (described above)
to catch Portsmouth 10 points (would use up 4 games - that we have to win and they have to lose)
It is a hopeless task and it's not going to happen. Conference football is inevitable and has been for weeks, in fact months.
